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Activity Pattern Distributions - Synthesis of Spatially & Temporally Disaggregate Person Trip Demand

Activity Pattern Distributions


The number of trips taken by residents of the synthetic population is now explored. Table 14 includes the number of people of each Activity Pattern in the output. These percentages closely match those input, as was seen in Table 5. This is important because it reveals that any n-by-8 table, where n equals the number of possible activity/tour patterns and 8 refers to the number of Traveler Types, used as input will result in a matching distribution. Note that Table 14 was produced using the Revised Traveler Types assigned in Module 4. Using the originals from Module 1 produces results that are off.

Table Probability Distributions of Activity Pattern by Traveler Type as Calculated from Synthesizer Output



Traveler Type

Do-Not-Travel

School-No-Work

School-Work

College

College-Work

Typical Worker

Home-Worker

Out-of-State



Activity Pattern

0



1



2



3



3



5



6



7



Trip Ends



0

1

0.01005

0.01019

0.00508

0.00658

0.00400

0.07522

0.01005

0

1

0

0.00000

0.00000

0.00794

0.00859

0.05013

0.14990

0.00000

2

2

0

0.12505

0.04948

0.00785

0.00819

0.00000

0.00000

0.12505

2

3

0

0.00000

0.40439

0.19964

0.20170

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

3

4

0

0.00000

0.00000

0.20045

0.19638

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

3

5

0

0.00000

0.00000

0.00805

0.00823

0.19630

0.14995

0.00000

3

6

0

0.35058

0.08493

0.00829

0.00752

0.00000

0.00000

0.35058

3

7

0

0.00000

0.45102

0.25925

0.25857

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

4

8

0

0.00000

0.00000

0.25778

0.25906

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

4

9

0

0.00000

0.00000

0.00810

0.00779

0.15035

0.09996

0.00000

4

10

0

0.32489

0.00000

0.00781

0.00720

0.00000

0.00000

0.32489

4

11

0

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

0.15011

0.00000

0.00000

4

12

0

0.00000

0.00000

0.00802

0.00743

0.14980

0.15545

0.00000

5

13

0

0.15020

0.00000

0.00798

0.00855

0.00000

0.00000

0.15020

5

14

0

0.00000

0.00000

0.00507

0.00528

0.15041

0.15518

0.00000

5

15

0

0.02512

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

0.02512

5

16

0

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

0.14889

0.21434

0.00000

7

17

0

0.01411

0.00000

0.00870

0.00895

0.00000

0.00000

0.01411

7

Total

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1



Average Trips

0

3.5767

3.3709

3.5788

3.5744

4.4346

4.2030

3.5767



Next these values are compared with statistics from the 2009 National Household Travel Survey Trip Chaining Dataset (Federal Highway Administration, 2011). The dataset itself is massive and was not, itself, used in either input for any of the modules, nor for comparison with the synthesizer’s output. Rather, the weighted summary statistics from Table 3 in the dataset’s accompanying PDF document are used. These can be seen below in Table 15.

Table Percentages of Trip Types from Synthesizer Output and from Trip Chaining Summary Statistics



TOURTYPE (Trip Type)

From Output (%)

From Trip Chaining doc (%)

H-H

4.27

11.80

H-O

7.80

25.93

H-W

19.95

10.08

O-H

36.37

26.58

O-O

7.90

11.27

O-W

2.10

1.53

W-H

7.62

8.89

W-O

12.21

2.62

W-W

1.73

1.30

A few differences in terminology and methodology must first be highlighted before proceeding to compare actual values. A tour in this thesis represents the entire multi-stop chain of trips taken in a day, where each trip has an origin and destination that defines the purpose of the trip. The NHTS defines a tour thusly:

“a tour depicts trips that are linked together (chained) between two anchored destinations (home, work, and other), and provides insight into travel demand based on location, purpose, mode, etc. To obtain a more accurate estimate of the time and distance related to commuting and other anchored tours, and to help researchers in their quest for a better understanding of travel behavior, including trip chaining…

The Components of a Tour



Day Trip


A trip record is one record of the NHTS Day Trip file. These trip records are the trip segments of a tour. Each trip record has an origin and a destination.

Dwell Time

The amount of time in minutes that the traveler was at the destination.

Anchor

Day trip records have a purpose for the trip origin and for the trip destination. These are classified as Home, Work, and Other. Home and Work always terminate a tour. If the anchor is of type Other and the dwell time is greater than 30 minutes, then that also terminates a tour.



Tour

A series of trips between two anchors.

Stop

An intermediate stop (Other) of a tour.”

As such, every stop in the synthesizer output’s tours is actually an anchor, as defined by the NHTS, since the distinction between stops and anchors is not made in this thesis. Furthermore, W’s (work anchors) in the NHTS data include schools, so trips from school to work are counted under the W-W trip type in Table 15. Lastly, recall from Task 4 that, for home-workers (Traveler Type 6), W’s represent O’s or Other trips. This was done to reduce the number of Activity Patterns (as seen in tables 5 and 14) needed for input.

To properly assess the Activity Pattern distributions input into the synthesizer, actual raw day trip data would provide a much better benchmark (or indeed a better base for the input itself). This is foregone due to time constraints and the availability of summary statistics for tours. Nevertheless, what can be taken away from the comparison in Table 15 is that the input used does not create enough Other stops. Indeed according to the NHTS Daily Travel Quick Facts (RITA), “45% of daily trips are taken for shopping and errands” and 27% for “social and recreational [trips], such as visiting a friend.” Summing all synthesized trips whose destinations are an Other yields about 28%, and trips to other households are not actually part of the Synthesizer’s model at all.
2014-07-19 18:44
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